Report was last generated on: 14/08/2019 12:41:04, using SCOPIC 4.4.16

September to November 2019  Seasonal Climate Outlooks for Cook Islands OCOF 
These outlooks are based upon the June to July 2019 NINO3.4 SST Anomalies 

Penrhyn 3mth (September to November 2019) Rainfall outlook. Based upon the 2mth Average value of the NINO3.4 SST Anomalies during June to July 2019 ( NINO3.4 ANOM=0.56 ), the forecast is biased towards "above-normal" Rainfall conditions for September through to the end of November for Penrhyn, with a forecast probability of 62%. The chance of "below-normal" Rainfall occurring is 10% while the chance of "normal" Rainfall is 28%. Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 1 out of every 10 years, the Rainfall in the September-November period are expected to be "below-normal";  about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 6 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal" . Note: "Below-normal" Rainfall for the September to November period at Penrhyn includes Rainfall less than 316.2mm. "Above-normal" Rainfall is that which is greater than 488.0mm. "Normal" Rainfall lies between 316.2 and 488.0mm.

Rarotonga 3mth (September to November 2019) Rainfall outlook. Based upon the 2mth Average value of the NINO3.4 SST Anomalies during June to July 2019 ( NINO3.4 ANOM=0.56 ), the forecast is biased towards "below-normal" Rainfall conditions for September through to the end of November for Rarotonga, with a forecast probability of 45%. The chance of "above-normal" Rainfall occurring is 25% while the chance of "normal" Rainfall is 30%. Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 5 out of every 10 years, the Rainfall in the September-November period are expected to be "below-normal";  about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal"; and about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal" . Note: "Below-normal" Rainfall for the September to November period at Rarotonga includes Rainfall less than 287.5mm. "Above-normal" Rainfall is that which is greater than 399.7mm. "Normal" Rainfall lies between 287.5 and 399.7mm.

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