Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch
Current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook is Inactive.
Penrhyn is in "Meteorological Drought" for all timescales after a dry May. In contrast, Rarotonga had a Very Wet May with no alert at the three, six and 12-month timescales.
For June, a "High Chance Dry" alert is in place for Pukapuka, Penrhyn and Rakahanga in the northern Cook Islands. In the southern Cook Islands, a "High Chance Wet" alert is in place for Rarotonga and Mangaia, a "Low Chance Wet" alert is in place for Aitutaki and no alert is in place for Mauke, Mitiaro, Atiu and Manuae.
For June to August 2021, "High Chance Dry" alerts are in place for all northern Cook Islands sites (Penrhyn, Rakahanga and Pukapuka). For the southern Cook Islands, a "Medium Chance Wet" alert is in place for Rarotonga, Aitutaki, Manuae and Mangaia, while remaining sites (Mauke, Mitiaro and Atiu) have a "Low Chance Wet" alert. See table/maps below for additional information. See status table below for potential impacts.