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Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch

 

Logo Title ENSO

Current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook is Inactive. Neither El Niño nor La Niña is present.

 

Status summary:

Penrhyn remains in Meteorological Drought for the 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales. Rarotonga is Very Wet at the 6-month and 3-month timescales.

 

Outlook summary:

For September, High Chance Dry alerts are in place for all northern Cook Island stations (Penrhyn, Rakahanga, Manihiki, Pukapuka, Nassau and Suwarrow). The outlook is for the long term drought to continue this month. In the southern Cook Islands, there is a Medium Chance Wet alert for Palmerston, and a Low Chance Wet alert for Aitutaki, Manuae, Mitiaro, Mauke and Atiu.

 

For September to November 2021, High Chance Dry alerts are in place for all northern Cook Island stations (Penrhyn, Rakahanga, Manihiki, Pukapuka, Nassau and Suwarrow). This suggests the long term drought may continue in the coming months. For the southern Cook Islands, there is a High Chance Wet alert for Aitutaki, a Medium Chance Wet alert for Palmerston and Manuae, and a Low Chance Wet alert for Atiu, Mitiaro and Mauke. See table/maps below for additional information. See status table below for potential impacts.

 

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Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch