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Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch

 

Logo Title ENSO

Current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña. The event is near its peak, with a return to neutral expected in the late southern summer or early autumn 2021. La Niña is normally associated with above average rainfall in the southern Cook Islands and below above average rainfall in the northern Cook Islands (opposite during El Niño)

Status summary: Penrhyn is now in "Meteorological Drought" for periods from one to six months, while remaining at Drought Warning for the past 12 months. Rainfall has also decreased at Rarotonga where "Drought Warning" is current for the past one and three months, while the six month total is only slightly above the Warning threshold.

Outlook summary: For January, "High Chance Dry" alerts are in place for all northern Cook Island sites (Penrhyn, Rakahanga and Pukapuka), and most Southern Cook Island sites, the only exceptions being Rarotonga (Low Chance Dry), and Mangaia (No Alert).

For January to March 2021, "High Chance Dry" alerts are in place for all northern Cook Island sites (Penrhyn, Rakahanga and Pukapuka), and most Southern Cook Island sites, the only exceptions being Rarotonga (Low Chance Dry), and Mangaia (Low Chance Wet). See table/maps below for additional information. See status table below for potential impacts

Outlook

 

Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch