Early Action Rainfall (EAR) Watch
Current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status:
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook has been reset from La Niña to Inactive.
Penrhyn is in "Meteorological Drought" for three, six and 12 months, while the one-month rainfall was at Drought Warning level. Following a dry March, Rarotonga has a six-month Drought Warning, but no alerts are current for three and 12 months.
For April, a "High Chance Dry" alert is in place for Pukapuka in the northern Cook Islands, while remaining northern sites (Penrhyn and Rakahanga), have "Low Chance Dry" alerts. In the southern Cook Islands, "Medium Chance Wet" alerts are current for Rarotonga, Mauke, Mitiaro and Atiu, while "Low Chance Wet" alerts exist for Aitutaki, Mangaia and Manuae.
For April to June 2021, "High Chance Dry" alerts are in place for all northern Cook Islands sites (Penrhyn, Rakahanga and Pukapuka). For the southern Cook Islands, Mauke, Mitiaro and Manuae have "High Chance Wet" alerts, while most other islands have "Medium Chance Wet" alerts, with the exception of a "Low Chance Wet" alert at Mangaia. See table/maps below for additional information. See status table below for potential impacts.