The Island Climate Update
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Moderate La Niña conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during December 2020.
- Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific remained cooler than average during December but increased slightly.
- The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +1.6 in December (in the La Niña range). The 3-month average SOI was +0.9.
- 92% Chance for ENSO NEUTRAL conditions during April-June 2021.
- 66% chance for La Niña conditions continuing during January-March 2021.
Rainfall and Drought Watch
January - March 2021 rainfall forecast
- Southern Cook Islands: Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
- Northern Cook Islands: Potential high water stress due to the below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 5 of the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.